נאום כתוב: השמאל חייב גנרל בראש כדי להצליח

שלום לכולם,  הערב אני רוצה להראות שרק גנרל, רצוי עם דרגות רא”ל ורקורד מוכח של הצלחה, יכול לנצח בבחירות עבור השמאל.  ואם אין אחד כזה בהישג יד (ואני מדבר אליך, אייזנקוט) אז גם ניצחון על נתניהו יושג כנראה בבית המשפט ולא בקלפי. וחבל.  למה?

Let's start with the numbers...

Because the left-wing parties that were not led by generals made an incredible electoral jackpot in the last decades...

in the last fifty years The left won 3 and a half times: Rabin 76, Rabin 93, Barak 99 and a half Gantz 2020. In the middle he lost with Peres (77, 81, 84, 88, 96) Mitzna, Fuad, Peretz (06, 20), Chaimovitz, Herzog, Gantz (19 , 19) and who-won't-be-next-time. In other words - even a general (Mitsana) or sub-general (Foad) or captain (Bozi' and Peretz) are not enough. Only a great champion, and even that is not certain.

And now we will look at the reasons

The left today offers the same 'end to the occupation' deal that it offered with Rabin in 1992: territories in exchange for peace. The point is that then he offered an attractive deal and today less so. A. Because then we thought that if we gave territories we would get peace, and today it is clear to us that even if we give territories we will get... well it is not clear exactly what, but certainly not peace. B. Because then we had significantly more areas to give away - since 1993 we have cleared the really attractive areas for evacuation (Nablus, Jenin, Gaza) and today we will have to clear areas that we actually liked to hold (the Jordan Valley) or even painful for us to clear (settlements).

It is therefore clear that the starting point of the left is much less attractive, and therefore it has to compensate with an increased promise of 'security'. Such a promise requires a person who has proven his ability to bring security (or at least fight the Arabs and ensure victory.

in the internal debate Of the left, it is clear that a general comes with very few of the core values of the left: equality, women's status, acceptance of minorities, gender openness, etc. But the one thing he does bring is the ability to appeal to audiences outside of the left's traditional base. In other words, the ability to win.